There is a lot of uncertainty about the shape and the nature of the economic recovery coming out of the recession initiated by COVID-19. While economists are downgrading Q2 forecasts, many experts remain resolute that we will see a sharp rebound in Q3 and Q4. We believe that Social Distancing and prolonged fears of infection are likely to create long-lasting shifts in consumers’ buying behaviors. For the first time in recent history, the entire population is forced to experiment with digital commerce that spans almost every sector including dining, groceries, entertainment, health, and yes, to a lesser extent travel. Given that a medical solution will take months, if not longer, to develop, the shape of the economic (and payments volume) recovery will be in part determined by consumers’ willingness to resume their pre-covid spend patterns.

Road to Recovery Index Model measures consumers’ anticipated discretionary spend as a function of current spend patterns, economic markers, and consumer sentiment. The expense categories covered in this model have accounted for approximately ~$3.96 trillion in 2019 consumer expenditures or ~29.5% of total Personal Consumer Expenditures (PCE).

Receive free and immediate access to the only forward-looking analysis that measures:

• Monthly impact of COVID-19 on discretionary/variable spend across credit, debit and cash.
• Shape of recovery for individual categories (e.g., restaurants, travel, home improvement, recreation, merchandise etc.)
• Consumers’ willingness to resume pre-covid spend by segment (e.g., GenZ, Millennials, Hispanics, etc.)

About The Futurist Group
The Futurist Group helps identify what’s next in payments, using modern technology, frictionless consumer engagement, and intelligent analytics to provide answers to the most important and forward-looking questions about the future of payments. Dedicated to the financial services space, The Futurist Group was founded by an experienced team of professionals from consumer intelligence, fintech, banking, analytics, and payments.

About Pi-360
A proprietary Product Innovation Intelligence Platform that maps and analyzes the entire competitive landscape through the lens of ongoing and structured consumer reviews. Imagine knowing everything that you need to know about your competitor’s products, emerging innovation, and consumer needs without waiting for research.

Road to Recovery Index: The best predictors of future outcomes combine behavioral and economic data with consumer sentiment. This is why we are partnering with Kantar Behavioral Payments Tracking and Pollfish to help our clients evaluate the near-term impact of COVID-19 on consumer expenditures. By combining actual spend patterns with economic and consumer sentiment data, we are creating forward-looking analytics that provide deeper context for where we are today and the path that we will need to take on the Road to Recovery. 

Sources: The Futurist Group, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis