Road to Recovery Index - Retail Disrupted, Groceries Not So Much
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Retail Disrupted, Groceries Not So Much
According to U.S. Census Bureau data released on June 16th, Retail spend improved by 17.7% in the month of May. These results are remarkably close to the 16% forecast issued by The Futurist Group 6 weeks earlier. (Read more about our forecasting that fuses credit and debit transaction data with forward-looking consumer sentiment to identify near-term trends in consumer buying behaviors.)
Despite the improvement in spend levels, we believe that the Retail brick and mortar stores will take a long time to recover. To appreciate the lasting impact of Covid-19 on Retail, we can compare the degree to which consumers are planning to stay away from Retail brick and mortar vs. Grocery stores and supermarkets.
While there has been a lot of talk about online food delivery services taking off and reshaping how we will buy groceries, our data shows that consumers will return to Grocery stores much faster than they will to Retail locations.
This should not be surprising given that food delivery services are a relatively young industry in comparison to online retail. Lack of pricing transparency, limited availability in in surging demand, union disputes, and the hit-or-miss experience with product substitutions are all factors that will prevent many consumers from sticking to online food deliveries after the pandemic.
Online retail is different. With big chains and malls suffering long before Covid, this data suggests that consumers are ready to migrate more of their dollars to online shopping.
Implications for Business Executives
By understanding and anticipating changes in consumer buying behaviors, businesses can adapt their communication and product strategy to align with consumer needs. Our monthly Road to Recovery Index provides:
- Spend Forecasting: We combine actual credit and debit spend with forward looking consumer sentiment to deliver accurate forecasts that inform business planning and product strategy.
- Consumer Behavior Changes: As the economy and the markets evolve, we offer a window into consumers changing needs and behaviors.
- Product Recommendations: We engage thousands of consumers each month to identify the exact incentives and partnership strategies that drive increased Spend and deeper engagement with your customers.
Inquire about our monthly newsletter or request custom analytics and insights specific to your business:
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About The Futurist Group
The Futurist Group helps identify what’s next in payments, using modern technology, frictionless consumer engagement, and intelligent analytics to provide answers to the most important and forward-looking questions about the future of payments. Dedicated to the financial services space, The Futurist Group was founded by an experienced team of professionals from consumer intelligence, fintech, banking, analytics, and payments.
About Pi-360
A proprietary Product Innovation Intelligence Platform that maps and analyzes the entire competitive landscape through the lens of ongoing and structured consumer reviews. Imagine knowing everything that you need to know about your competitor’s products, emerging innovation, and consumer needs without waiting for research.
